鬼眼看天朝系列之一--------------脱离铁轨了（英国经济学家中国专栏文章）

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鬼眼看天朝系列之一--------------脱离铁轨了（英国经济学家中国专栏文章）

China
Off the rails?
High-speed trains might be forced to go a little more slowly

CHINA’s high-speed rail network is probably the world’s most ambitious public-works project, a 21st-century equivalent of America’s Interstate highway system. Officials crow at each new speed milestone and each dramatic reduction in intercity-travel times. But after the disgrace and sacking of the railways minister and a series of other corruption investigations, the construction of the system itself may be shunted onto the slow track.

In 2008 China had only 649km of high-speed railway. It now has nearly 8,400km, four times as much as the next-largest network (Japan’s). The total will approach 19,000km by 2014, according to analysts at UBS, a Swiss bank (see map). That would be ten times as extensive as Japan’s. China is also adding copious amounts of traditional track and upgrading lines, mostly intended for freight. Estimates for the bill range from $530 billion to $750 billion in today’s money—comparable to America’s interstate system, which cost over $400 billion in 2006 dollars.

But question-marks have been raised over these plans after the sacking in February of Liu Zhijun, the minister responsible for building the high-speed network. He was accused of skimming off as much as 1 billion yuan ($152m) in bribes and of keeping as many as 18 mistresses. Zhang Shuguang, another top official in the railways ministry, was later dismissed for corruption. Separately, on March 23rd, state auditors reported that $28m had been embezzled from the 1,300km high-speed line between Beijing and Shanghai, the highest-profile of China’s many rail projects.
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Public support for high-speed trains is muted. The trains may reach 350km per hour but fares are proportionately eye- watering. That is all right for well-heeled travellers, happy to have an alternative to flying. But tens of millions of poor migrants who work far afield and flock home for the Chinese new year are being priced out the rail market and have to go by bus (the number of bus journeys is soaring).

The sacking of top officials may be the result merely of one of China’s periodic anti-corruption campaigns. Or it may be the upshot of a high-level factional or personal battle, in which corruption charges are often a favourite weapon. If so, the dismissals would not necessarily affect railway development.

But some experts think construction may slow down. In his first public remarks, the new railways minister, Sheng Guangzu, repeatedly stressed the importance of quality and safety, implying that corruption may have led to corner-cutting, and that the timetables on some projects may now have to change. The breakneck pace of construction has also left the ministry with large and—say some analysts—unsustainable debts, putting further pressure on projects.

No one thinks China is going to make drastic changes to what is a signature national programme. (And one from which it hopes to spin off lucrative contracts building railways in Algeria, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan and elsewhere.) But it might postpone some of the dizzier schemes, such as one to build a freight line across mountainous northern Colombia to rival the Panama canal. And all those high-speed lines in China might now be laid at a slightly less breakneck pace.

这经济学家挺逗的。搞不清楚飞机和火车的特点。

从北京到广州做飞机是没错的，从北京到天津也坐飞机就慢了，因为去飞机场的时间，候机的时间，还不一定准点，还得看天气，下了飞机还得到天津市区，，，全加起来肯定是高铁去天津快啊。

所以高铁扩大的是生活圈，把卫星城链接起来。200km以内如果能1小时到达，那城市经济圈得扩大多少倍啊。

另外高铁连到新加坡，战略意义重大。不能只算经济账。新加坡滨临马六甲海峡，亚洲只咽喉。如果高铁直通新加坡，出兵速度不知道快多少倍。这会侵犯了美国在亚洲的利益，所以英国的“经济”学家出来写篇报道也不足为奇。。。

这经济学家挺逗的。搞不清楚飞机和火车的特点。

从北京到广州做飞机是没错的，从北京到天津也坐飞机就慢 ...
zy168 发表于 2011-4-12 10:52

    还有补充一下：飞机的运载量有限，有谁见过用飞机拉煤，铁矿和石油的。。火车就不一样了。。中国现在的主要对外经济通道是海上。。而我们很清楚海上谁说了算。。一个索马里海盗，美国这么叼的国家死活都干不完，，为什么？？？难道真是难搞，还是有人压根就不希望搞完他。。搞乱海上运输线，亚洲欧洲都要倒霉。。那就得给美国面子。。但如果，亚洲和欧洲用铁路连一起。。美国就煞笔了。完全没丫啥事了。。并且也不会降低运输的效率，且并是大大的提高了。。这就是高铁的重要意义。也是精髓所在。。
上面那篇，没看。但从你的回复中大体了解一二，英国那么铁的美盟友，说三到四也很正常。不是有那么一句话么，，凡是敌人反对的，那我们就要坚定的搞下去。

刚工作的时候发现新疆几乎每个地级市都有机场，青藏铁路只从经济方面也是稳陪不赚的事情，但其中的战略意义无法用金钱衡量啊，西方言论自由对的错的胡扯八道的谁都可以往上写，看看也就算了，没必要当真

BBC出了一个 专讲中国的专题 叫 The Chinese are coming    还分1和2     看了后进一步可以确定英国人极其狭义的民族主义

高铁，不适合做战略运输。高铁需要的运行条件太高，成本太大。光一个输电线的精度，轨道的平整度要求就让建设成本吃不消。大雨大风就要减速，打仗起来只能当普通铁路用。

中国修这么多高铁，短期只能亏本, 只能说缓解了普通铁路的压力，可以通过货运来弥补损失。上海那个磁悬浮现在都没人提起了。